I saw Lewis Lapham give a talk a couple months ago at the Boston Athenaeum on new media, the Internet, and civic discourse. My one sentence summary:
The problem with giving everyone the ability to raise their voices online is that it makes people less likely to raise their voices, or their fists, in the streets.



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That's why censorship is counter-productive.
But of course, if you do want civil unrest, censorship is a great way of fomenting it.
That doesn't match my intuition, but what-if scenarios are difficult to guess at. (In particular, I think the video of Neda Soltan served as an very large incitement towards more unrest, and I doubt that the video was shown on state TV.)